Budget uncertainty hangs over quiet stocks, FX

LONDON (Reuters) - World stock, commodity and currency markets were steady on Monday, with tensions over the U.S. budget dispute subdued by a holiday lull in Europe.

With a number of stock markets including in Germany, Italy and Switzerland closed for the Christmas holiday, the FTSEurofirst300 <.fteu3> was flat at 1,138.92 points by 1045 GMT and the MSCI index of global stocks <.miwd00000pus> was virtually unchanged at 339.97. The British, French, Dutch and Spanish markets were open for shortened sessions only.

Activity in other assets was also subdued, with spot gold edging up from a four-month low and Brent oil easing back under $109 a barrel.

Markets were left in limbo on Friday when President Barack Obama and U.S. lawmakers suspended talks until after Christmas on avoiding $600 billion of spending cuts and tax increases that threaten to send the economy back into recession.

Although there is no official date for talks to resume, the two sides still have few days after Christmas to find a compromise before the January 1 deadline when the measures start to take effect.

Most political experts and economists expect a deal of some form. If one isn't, the "fiscal cliff" could wipe as much as 4 percent off U.S. GDP next year, choking the global recovery before it gets going.

"The fiscal cliff is the only thing that is important for markets at the moment," said ABN Amro economist Aline Schuiling. "We were hoping the festive spirit would get everyone together and a deal would be done, but Obama has now gone to Hawaii for Christmas, so it looks like we'll have to wait."

YEN WEAKNESS

Most European bond markets were already shut for Christmas but one of the few to be open was in Britain where benchmark 10-year yields ticked higher.

Currency markets were also largely quiet. Against the backdrop of the fiscal cliff uncertainty, the dollar eased 0.2 percent versus a basket of major currencies while the euro climbed back above $1.32.

The major mover was the yen, which neared a 20-month low versus the dollar, after incoming premier Shinzo Abe renewed pressure over the weekend on the Bank of Japan to adopt a 2 percent inflation target.

The dollar was up 0.2 percent on the day at 84.42 yen. Chartists said the dollar needed to overcome 85.05 yen, its 200-week moving average, for it to make further gains.

"There has been some pretty significant yen selling all through the night and into this morning," said Peter Kinsella, currency strategist at Commerzbank.

"It is very noticeable we have not seen any retracement or dip in dollar/yen at all. The market is really saying they are convinced on yen weakness, and that is what we are going to see for the remainder of this year and in the course of next year."

STRONG FINISH

Trading on Wall Street was also expected to be subdued when it opens later, also for half a day. Futures pointed to the S&P 500 opening down 0.6 percent and the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 starting down 0.4 percent. <.n/>

The uncertainty over the U.S. budget is threatening to sour what has been a strong second half of the year for equity markets. The FTSEurofirst 300 is up 20 percent since June while the Euro STOXX 50 <.stoxx50e> has gained almost 30 percent. Both indexes are set to post their best annual performances since the post-Lehman crisis bounce of 2009.

Investors are now showing increasing appetite for European stocks. EPFR Global data reported that flows into equity funds have increased for the last 19 weeks.

"This year has been a year of transition, and now it's time to turn the page and move on, to start picking stocks again for the long term, companies exposed to the emerging consumer in places like Asia and Africa," said David Thebault, head of quantitative sales trading, at Global Equities.

Others warn that the euro zone crisis may still have some bite left, however. Elections are due next year in Italy and Germany, while Spain's government, companies and banks need to refinance huge amounts of debt.

"Policymakers in Spain will not be looking forward to the start of the year and January will probably be quite volatile in Europe," said ABN Amro's Schuiling. "The funding in the first quarter for Spain will be the test... Its deficit is now roughly the same as Greece's."

(Additional reporting by Blaise Robinson in Paris and Anooja Debnath in London; editing by David Stamp)

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The ‘Teen Mom’ Twitter Proposal

Hmm. Teen mom from Teen Mom Maci Bookout was on Twitter the other day when she received a tweet from the father of her child asking her to marry him. No lie! Ryan Edwards from Teen Dad — Huh? What’s that? There’s no such show? He’s just on Teen Mom? Oh, OK — was all “Maci Bookout marry me!” And Maci was all “Ur s–t got hacked BRO! Outta ur mind haha.” And then Ryan was all “would never let that happen.” Maci asked what he was playing at and then Ryan said, omg, “It means that I want to get on one knee and tell you how much I love you.” Whoaaaa! That’s huge! Maci, marry that boy! He just proposed to you sort of maybe on Twitter! How romantic! Also you have a four-year-old child together so maybe it would be easier to be married, I dunno, for like legal reasons or something? But no. Alas. Maci responded to that saying “Twitter is not the place. Ima kill u.” So wait. If we’re going to take Ryan’s sweet Twitter proposal seriously, which we’re going to, I guess that means we have to take Maci‘s Twitter death threat seriously, too? Police, go arrest Maci. As much as it pains us to say it. Fair’s fair. Ryan, you can marry Maci while she’s in jail. Bentley, which is the name of the child that made all of this, literally all of this, possible, can come live with Ryan while Maci serves her sentence. Sad that such a sweet moment had to end so tragically. But that’s Twitter for you. [Us Weekly]

RELATED: James Franco Has a New Girl

Haha/Ew: Lindsay Lohan said she would not kiss Charlie Sheen when they were filming their scene for Scary Movie 5 because “his mouth grossed her out.” Yes. That’s actually the headline of the TMZ post: “Lindsay REFUSED to Kiss Charlie … Because His Mouth Grossed Her Out.” Man. In a thousand years, when the aliens are sifting through our bones and ashes to learn about the civilization they just annihilated, they’re going to somehow find a list of TMZ headlines and will shake their big gelatinous heads and figure they were right to wipe us out. TMZ headlines. Wooftie. But back to Lindsay, I don’t blame her. You couldn’t pay me a trillion dollars to kiss Charlie Sheen. Why not just pay me ten bucks to lick a wall at the Port Authority? Honestly. Here’s a good line from the story: “we’re told BOTH parties had to sign releases that they didn’t have cold sores.” Which, holy hell, guys. If you have to do that to film a stupid movie, maybe it’s time to pack a suitcase and more to Uruguay. Like, chuck this rotten life aside and say see you soon, Montevideo. You’d be so much happier. It’s supposed to be great down there. It’s time for a change, you guys. Don’t be another TMZ headline. [TMZ]

RELATED: Charlie Sheen and Lindsay Lohan Made Out

Naomi Campbell ate at the new Beatrice Inn on Wednesday night, hobbling in on crutches and in a leg brace after she tore a ligament or something. She ate with Vogue editor Carlyne Cerf de Dudzeele and a photographer named Steven Meisel. At a table nearby, Vera Wang, Calvin Klein, and Donna Karan were all having dinner. Excuse me?? What happened next? Did they all go to a screening of Unzipped and then to the after party, where the Spin Doctors were playing? Was everyone talking about the last MTV Top 20 and if Idalis is better than Daisy Fuentes? I mean, what? Naomi Campbell walks into a restaurant and Calvin Klein, Donna Karan, and Vera freaking Wang are eating nearby? Was Betsey Johnson the busboy? Was Cindy Crawford sweating on the line as a cook? Honestly. I didn’t realize they were still filming Prêt-à-Porter. Good grief. [Page Six]

RELATED: The 2012 Gossip Stories We Loved

Did you know that Kelly Clarkson is engaged to Reba McEntire‘s stepson? Because she is. Kelly Clarkson is engaged to Reba McEntire‘s stepson. So engaged, in fact, that Reba thinks the two might elope. Or at least she “wouldn’t be surprised” if they did. Because some big wedding wouldn’t really be Kelly’s style, apparently. Reba said as much: “That was never my deal and I don’t know that that’s Kelly’s either.” Oh, man. I wish Reba would say “that was never my deal” in a sentence about me. What a nice life Kelly Clarkson has had. Famous from a TV show and then actually famous, respectably famous. And now she gets to marry into Reba McEntire‘s family. It’s all coming together for Kelly Clarkson, guys. Just in time for the end of the world. [Us Weekly]

RELATED: In Which Taylor Swift and One Direction’s Harry Styles Get Serious

Jessica Biel has been doing a tour of Broadway recently. First she went to see Book of Mormon and afterward tweeted thusly: “Book of Mormon was too good for words . . . Except for words like amazing and best musical I’ve seen in forever and incredible!” Which is a totally boring thing to say about Book of Mormon. Here’s the skinny on that show: It’s not that good. Actually, forget the italics. It’s just not that good. Just because a Broadway musical swears and says “scrotum” a lot, does not mean it is being daring or irreverent. It’s a wan show that actually totally gives Mormonism a pass and instead averts your gaze to freaking Africa, which it just makes fun of for two hours because who’s gonna fight back on that one? Toothless and dim, that show. Entertaining, but toothless and dim. Whatever. Jessica Biel then went to go see ScarJo in Cat on a Hot Tin Roof, which good heavens I didn’t know that was in previews already. That is a nightmare. She’s playing Maggie the Cat, ScarJo is. Can you believe that? Well, believe it or not, she is. And Jessica Biel went to go see it. Tellingly, no tweets about that. Ha, not a single damn tweet about that heap. Anyway, all this playgoing has Page Six wondering if J.Biel might be hungry for a Broadway show of her own. Which would be a fine mess, wouldn’t it? Unless they do a Seventh Heaven stage play, something really serious and earnest, in which case I would walk Ms. Biel to the theater myself. But otherwise? Nope. Get thee back to the Stealth 2 set, Biel. Return to where you belong. [Page Six]

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Clashes Break Out in India at a Protest Over a Rape Case

Anindito Mukherjee/European Pressphoto Agency

The police used water cannons on demonstrators gathered in India’s capital city on Saturday.

Protesters scuffled with the police throughout the day. Some police vehicles were damaged, and the police eventually used tear gas, water cannons and sticks to disperse the crowd. Officials said 35 protesters and 37 police officers had been injured, two officers seriously, and that six buses and several police vehicles were damaged.

Outrage over the crime has continued to build across the country and the protesters in New Delhi promised to return in even greater numbers on Sunday, prompting Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde to hold a news conference on Saturday night to plead for calm.

“The government is committed to ensuring the safety of women in the capital as well as in the rest of the country,” Mr. Shinde said. “I appeal to this media, to all those who have come to support this dedication, to withdraw.”

Mr. Shinde listed four steps the government would take immediately to improve security in New Delhi: increase the number of buses at night, track those buses with GPS devices, ensure drivers carry identity badges and increase the number of police officers on busy routes.

The police have arrested six suspects and Mr. Shinde said that the victim had given a statement to a magistrate on Friday night, and that the government had enough evidence to prosecute.

The woman was raped on Dec. 16 after she boarded a private bus with her boyfriend. A group of men onboard the bus, normally used to ferry schoolchildren, beat the couple with iron rods and raped the woman. The men then dumped them by the roadside.

The woman has had several rounds of surgery and a portion of her intestines had to be removed, doctors said. Mr. Shinde also said the government had canceled all permits for the transportation company that owns the bus on which the rape occurred. At the protest, people chanted “We want justice!” and held placards that said “Save Women Save India.”

“These rapists should be hanged publicly,” said Shaelly Tomar, a student at Delhi University who took part in the protest with several friends. “If that happens, nobody will dare to do it again.”

Tens of thousands of rapes are reported each year in India, while many more go unreported because rape victims are often shunned and unable to marry. Even so, reports of rape are on the rise, up about 25 percent in the past six years. Surveys have suggested that India is one of the most unsafe countries in the world for women.

The roots of the problem run deep in a conservative society that is having trouble adjusting to educational and economic advances by women, long confined to the home. Demographics also play a role, with half of India’s population under 25 and female infanticide and the neglect of girls creating a growing gender imbalance.

But India’s criminal justice system, riddled with incompetence, corruption and political meddling, seems unable to respond effectively.

Heather Timmons contributed reporting.

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Eric Ladin Welcomes a Son

Mom & Babies
Celebrity Baby Blog

12/23/2012 at 12:00 AM ET

Noah Graham/Noah Graham Photography

Eric Ladin is one killer new dad.

The former Killing actor and his wife Katy welcomed their first child, son Maxfield David Ladin, on Friday, Dec. 21 in Los Angeles, his rep confirms to PEOPLE exclusively.

“Wow! The last 24 hrs have been the best of my life. Forever changed, I am now a father,” the actor says.

Announcing the pregnancy in May, the first-time father admitted he and his fashion designer/stylist wife were thrilled to be starting a family — despite entering into the unknown.

“Katy and I couldn’t be happier, we have always wanted to be parents. Now what the hell do we do?” Ladin, 34, joked.

– Anya Leon with reporting by Michelle Tan

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

___

Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

___

AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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Wall Street Week Ahead: A lump of coal for "Fiscal Cliff-mas"

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street traders are going to have to pack their tablets and work computers in their holiday luggage after all.

A traditionally quiet week could become hellish for traders as politicians in Washington are likely to fall short of an agreement to deal with $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts due to kick in early next year. Many economists forecast that this "fiscal cliff" will push the economy into recession.

Thursday's debacle in the U.S. House of Representatives, where Speaker John Boehner failed to secure passage of his own bill that was meant to pressure President Obama and Senate Democrats, only added to worry that the protracted budget talks will stretch into 2013.

Still, the market remains resilient. Friday's decline on Wall Street, triggered by Boehner's fiasco, was not enough to prevent the S&P 500 from posting its best week in four.

"The markets have been sort of taking this in stride," said Sandy Lincoln, chief market strategist at BMO Asset Management U.S. in Chicago, which has about $38 billion in assets under management.

"The markets still basically believe that something will be done," he said.

If something happens next week, it will come in a short time frame. Markets will be open for a half-day on Christmas Eve, when Congress will not be in session, and will close on Tuesday for Christmas. Wall Street will resume regular stock trading on Wednesday, but volume is expected to be light throughout the rest of the week with scores of market participants away on a holiday break.

For the week, the three major U.S. stock indexes posted gains, with the Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> up 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 <.spx> up 1.2 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> up 1.7 percent.

Stocks also have booked solid gains for the year so far, with just five trading sessions left in 2012: The Dow has advanced 8 percent, while the S&P 500 has climbed 13.7 percent and the Nasdaq has jumped 16 percent.

IT COULD GET A LITTLE CRAZY

Equity volumes are expected to fall sharply next week. Last year, daily volume on each of the last five trading days dropped on average by about 49 percent, compared with the rest of 2011 - to just over 4 billion shares a day exchanging hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT in the final five sessions of the year from a 2011 daily average of 7.9 billion.

If the trend repeats, low volumes could generate a spike in volatility as traders keep track of any advance in the cliff talks in Washington.

"I'm guessing it's going to be a low volume week. There's not a whole lot other than the fiscal cliff that is going to continue to take the headlines," said Joe Bell, senior equity analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research, in Cincinnati.

"A lot of people already have a foot out the door, and with the possibility of some market-moving news, you get the possibility of increased volatility."

Economic data would have to be way off the mark to move markets next week. But if the recent trend of better-than-expected economic data holds, stocks will have strong fundamental support that could prevent selling from getting overextended even as the fiscal cliff negotiations grind along.

Small and mid-cap stocks have outperformed their larger peers in the last couple of months, indicating a shift in investor sentiment toward the U.S. economy. The S&P MidCap 400 Index <.mid> overcame a technical level by confirming its close above 1,000 for a second week.

"We view the outperformance of the mid-caps and the break of that level as a strong sign for the overall market," Schaeffer's Bell said.

"Whenever you have flight to risk, it shows investors are beginning to have more of a risk appetite."

Evidence of that shift could be a spike in shares in the defense sector, expected to take a hit as defense spending is a key component of the budget talks.

The PHLX defense sector index <.dfx> hit a historic high on Thursday, and far outperformed the market on Friday with a dip of just 0.26 percent, while the three major U.S. stock indexes finished the day down about 1 percent.

Following a half-day on Wall Street on Monday ahead of the Christmas holiday, Wednesday will bring the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. It is expected to show a ninth-straight month of gains.

U.S. jobless claims on Thursday are seen roughly in line with the previous week's level, with the forecast at 360,000 new filings for unemployment insurance, compared with the previous week's 361,000.

(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: rodrigo.campos(at)thomsonreuters.com)

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Jan Paschal)

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Suicide bombers attack mobile phone firms in Nigeria

KANO, Nigeria (Reuters) – Two suicide car bombers attacked the offices of mobile phone operators India’s Airtel and South Africa’s MTN on Saturday in Nigeria’s northern city of Kano, killing themselves but no civilians, police said.

Islamist sect Boko Haram has previously targeted phone firms, blowing up telephone masts and offices, saying the companies help the security forces catch its members.

“The one who hit the Airtel office was shot by military men before the bomb exploded … at the MTN office the car rammed into the fence but no civilians were killed,” Ibrahim Idris, the chief of police in Kano, told Reuters.

Airtel Nigeria’s parent company Bharti Airtel, India’s top cellphone operator, gave no immediate comment.

The national emergency agency confirmed the bombing and said it was not aware of any civilian casualties. The security forces have played down the death toll in previous bombings.

At least 2,800 people have died in fighting in the largely Muslim north since the sect launched an uprising against the government in 2009, watchdog Human Rights Watch says.

The sect wants to impose strict Islamic law on a country of 160 million people split roughly equally between Christians and Muslims.

The group has previously targeted churches on Christmas Day and security has been increased in all the major northern cities, although security experts say given the scale of Christian worship in Nigeria they cannot protect everyone.

Kano, Nigeria‘s second largest city after the southern commercial-hub Lagos, was the site of Boko Haram’s most lethal attack which killed at least 186 people in January in coordinated bombings and shootings.

(Additional reporting by Isaac Abrak in Kaduna; Writing by Joe Brock; Editing by Andrew Osborn and Janet Lawrence)

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The Saturday Profile: In Cindy From Marzahn, an Offbeat Comedian of the People

WHEN a career counselor in the East German town of Luckenwalde asked Ilka Bessin what she wanted to be when she grew up, the teenager answered that she had always wanted to be a clown. “Cook” was also a creative job, the counselor suggested, and a lot more realistic.

It was still a few years before the fall of the Berlin Wall, and Ms. Bessin (pronounced bess-EEN) ended up an apprentice chef at a state-owned enterprise, preparing breakfast and lunch every day for more than 1,000 workers. She never could have guessed that two decades later she would be a comedy superstar in a reunified Germany, making millions of her compatriots laugh in clubs and theaters across the land, with television stations fighting over her appearances.

Audiences know Ms. Bessin, 41, as Cindy from Marzahn, her louder, ruder and more profane alter ego. With her curly peroxide wig and swathes of hot-pink eye shadow, Cindy hails from the notorious East Berlin neighborhood of Marzahn, synonymous with the enormous Communist high-rise housing estates.

An overweight 6-foot-2-inch Valkyrie of a woman in a pink velour sweatsuit, Cindy plays up the worst stereotypes of Germany’s contemporary version of the welfare queen. She wakes up at 2 o’clock in the afternoon and begins drinking. Her dream man, Enrico, stands 4-foot-10, weighs 375 pounds and works as a bouncer.

“No neck, no hair and no brain,” she says approvingly.

IN October, Ms. Bessin was named Germany’s female comedian of the year for the fourth time in a row. The daily newspaper Tagesspiegel recently called her “a phenomenon,” under the headline “Princess of the Plattenbau,” the prefabricated housing blocs built in the former East. She hosts her own television series and recently began appearing on “Wetten Dass,” the long-running variety show whose name translates loosely as “Wanna Bet?”

Yet when asked in a recent interview how it felt to be an established star, Ms. Bessin quickly replied, “As far as I’m concerned, I’m really not there yet.” Quieter than Cindy and extremely considerate, Ms. Bessin is hardly recognizable out of costume, just one of the facts that helps keep her grounded.

“I drink absolutely no Champagne, and I don’t fit in Jean Paul Gaultier’s clothes,” she said, with a toned-down version of the self-deprecation she shares with Cindy.

Germany may have more money than its neighbors on the whole, but the middle class is shrinking and much of its recent gains in economic competitiveness came from labor-market changes that cut jobless benefits and pressured people to work, sometimes for as little as an additional $1.30 an hour. Cindy brought the low-paying jobs and the secondhand stores onstage, with songs as well as monologues.

It was a language Ms. Bessin spoke fluently, having herself lived on Hartz IV welfare payments for several years. “You sleep a lot, because you don’t see the point in getting up, and you eat what’s around you,” Ms. Bessin recalled. “You go to the employment office because you have appointments, but generally you go home even more demoralized.”

Out of the crucible of humiliation emerged Cindy, crass and cagey, driven by appetites. She hides a bratwurst in a banana peel and asks the audience for chocolate, then eats what they throw onstage. “I have Alzheimer’s bulimia,” Cindy likes to say, stomach bulging under her pink sweatshirt, tiara perched atop her wig. “I eat everything in sight and then forget to throw up.”

Critics call her act offensive, lowbrow and worse, mixing high-minded attacks on her with patronizing depictions of her supposedly benighted fans. Those fans answer by buying her concert videos and turning out to her shows in droves, where they scream and applaud like mad, many wearing their own tiaras and pink sweatshirts emblazoned with the words “Alzheimer’s bulimia” on the front.

Cindy regales them with tales of her time as a member of the Socialist Children’s Television Ballet or her efforts to get adopted by Zsa Zsa Gabor’s husband Frédéric Prinz von Anhalt. Her performances are marathons with musical numbers. Fans often bring her presents and handmade cards. She is a star but also a hero, one of them, one who made it.

“I win,” Cindy sings in one of her songs, “although I’m not a winner.”

Ms. Bessin said in the interview that her act was not about East and West, which are outdated concepts in her view. Cindy happened to come from the East because Ms. Bessin did too. Her memory of the end of Communism was typically understated. “My mother was in the living room. I was in the kitchen washing dishes. She said, ‘The Wall fell,’ and I said, ‘Yeah, O.K.,’ and went back to washing dishes.”

Over the next decade she worked a dozen jobs at hotels and restaurants, including Planet Hollywood Berlin, and even did a stint on a cruise ship. She was working as a restaurant manager in 2001 and went on sick leave. When she came back she had been fired and her job had been given to someone else.

A long, demoralizing stretch on welfare followed. Between her hundreds of job applications Ms. Bessin said she ate, lay in bed and watched television, gaining weight and losing motivation. She was slowly sliding into a growing German underclass best known to the rest of the country from talk shows about paternity tests and plastic surgery. Unbeknown to Ms. Bessin, she was researching a character that had not yet found her outlet. Ms. Bessin’s break was not just lucky, it was accidental. In 2004, she called up the Quatsch Comedy Club in Berlin looking for a job as a waitress. After listening to her for a while the man on the other end of the line announced that he was not the person responsible for hiring service personnel. He was in charge of booking the acts.

“Do you have any interest in doing stand-up?” she recalled him asking. He told her about a talent competition the club was hosting. She agreed and began writing a few minutes of material. When she read through her jokes at rehearsal, people told her there was no way her act was going to work.

She decided she had nothing to lose; the wig and the costume were like a disguise and a suit of armor all at once. “No one is going to recognize me anyway, I thought,” Ms. Bessin said. On stage during the actual performance, the crowd responded immediately. Ms. Bessin talks about the similarities between her stage persona and herself, saying Cindy is “80 percent me,” but she talks about the character in the third person. Donning the costume unlocks something impish and ferocious in Ms. Bessin. She won the grueling competition, and eventually earned an appearance on the popular late-night show “TV total” in March 2006.

More offers to perform quickly followed. In 2007, Ms. Bessin won the German Comedy Prize for newcomer of the year. She has a comedy showcase, “Cindy and the Young Wild Ones,” on the private television network RTL.

The set for her first comedy special, “Schizophrenic: I Wanted to Be a Princess,” was a Communist housing bloc. The second, “Not Every Prince Comes on Horseback,” was a pink fairy castle, a home fit for Barbie.

The former welfare queen stood onstage, soaking up the audience’s applause, surrounded by men with guts, a few of them bald, but all wearing skimpy shorts and shaking pink and black pom-poms. Maybe none of them was Enrico, but it was certainly a dream come true.

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See If You Can Spot the One Color That Popped on the Carpet This Week

Stylewatch
Style News Now

12/21/2012 at 12:00 PM ET

Getty; Splash News Online; WireImage

Even though we didn’t see as many stars on the red carpet this week as last — it’s quiet in Hollywood this holiday season! — we still saw some strong trends emerge at various events. What were they? Let’s get to it!

Up: Pops of red. You can thank the holidays for this festive mini-trend, which we spotted on Hailee Steinfeld’s purse, Bella Heathcote’s dress and Rose Byrne’s jacket. Adding just a hint of the bold hue to your outfit is an easy way to look all holiday-y without going overboard.

Up: Head-to-toe black. What, are stars sick of sequined dresses already? This week we saw nearly one dozen leading ladies wear all black: Britney Spears, Demi Lovato, LeAnn Rimes, Alexa Chung, Jessica Chastain, Miley Cyrus, Krysten Ritter and Kerry Washington … to name a few. As New Yorkers, we’re always happy to see all-black ensembles en force, and it is a look that’s usually pretty failsafe — and slimming.

Down: Stick-straight hair. Rita Ora was the only woman we saw with pin-straight locks this week; everyone else went for bouncy curls and elegant updos (and cropped cuts, if you count Miley Cyrus!). With Christmas and New Year’s Even upon us, we predict we’ll be seeing a lot more exciting hairdos and less of the minimalist straight looks.

Tell us: Which color are you more likely to wear at the holidays: red or black?

Want more Trend Report? Click to hear our thoughts on mini dresses, cut-outs and collars.

FIND ALL THE LATEST RED CARPET NEWS AND PHOTOS HERE!

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

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Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

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AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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